This is the third of a three part series to commemorate the twenty-second anniversary of the Armenian earthquake of December 7th, 1988.
The Legacy
After the devastating earthquake that shocked Armenia twenty-two years today, there was much soul searching and many questions that needed to be answered. The most important question was, 'How do we prevent a tragedy like this from ever happening again?' Since it is impossible to stop the movement of the Earth's crust, in order to continue to live in a zone full of seismic activity certain steps must be taken. Taking a cue from Japanese construction, after the earthquake the Soviet government decided to rebuild with buildings that are able to withstand the energy release from these tremors underground.
The Soviet reconstruction succeeded in many aspects. Soviet architects concluded that the reason the destruction was so widespread was that the original buildings were not built to be earthquake resistant. Working with seismologists, all the residential and public buildings were built to withstand earthquakes measuring up to a magnitude of 7 on the Richter scale. This was done because at that time, Soviet seismologists believed that the seismic activity in Armenia could not get any higher than that. Unfortunately the glaring failure of the Soviet project is shown though international data collected in the aftermath of the earthquake. This data has led most scientists to believe that Armenia lies in an area at risk of earthquakes with a magnitude as high as 9.i
It is scary that Armenia has the capability of experiences earthquakes with such a high magnitude, but these powerful forces are extremely rare. The question many people ask is 'What would happen if another earthquake occurred with the same force as the one so many years ago?' The answer to this question is even scarier than Armenia's earthquake risk.
“If an earthquake strikes in Yerevan 90 percent of the housing will be ruined, and the death toll will exceed 300,000.” This is a quote from Mikayel Melkumyan, the chairman of the Armenian Association for Seismically Safe Construction.ii The reason for his cynicism is what he believes to be a population density far too high in Yerevan. There is a new proverb popping up in Armenian, 'There are more cranes than trees in Yereven.'iii A walk down almost any street in the capital will bear signs of construction that is happening at a frenetic pace.
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| Construction in Yerevan. ArmeniaNow |
The construction in Yerevan is a double edged sword. On one hand, it is increasing the density of buildings to what many people believe is unsuitable for such a seismic zone. On the other hand, the new buildings being constructed are of higher quality and more resistant if Yerevan does get attacked by an earthquake. The major concern is all of the buildings that were built in the 1950's and 70's because they will be the ones that will collapse and block of roads and access routes for emergency services.
As for the human element during this tragedy, studies have shown that casualties can be lessened up to thirty percent if people are aware of the danger and grow up in a culture that works to prevent these dangerous situations.iv There has been some progress here with games and trainings organized for younger children at school so they understand what do to in event of an earthquake. Also the government has begun to look harder at construction firms and ensure the work is up to international standards. Along with better construction of new buildings, government officials are beginning to see the wisdom of improving existing buildings. It would take an estimated $3 billion USD to update all the residential buildings in Yerevan alone.v But compared with the dollar cost of what it would take to rebuild the entire city and the emotional toll another earthquake would cause with people dying families being destroyed, is there any good reason not find the money?
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