The Geminids

Geminid Meteor Shower

It's that time of year again. While we are preparing for Christmas and New Years, the Gemind Meteor Shower is about to happen. For those of us who aren't in the know, the Geminids are one of the premier stargazing events of the year. First appearing in the 1860s, this cosmic light show occurs in mid-December of every year, with the greatest intensity normally falling on the 14^th. To patient observers willing to brave the winter chill (or lucky observers living in the Southern Hemisphere) meteor densities close to one hundred an hour will be a visual treat not soon forgotten.ⁱ

Being one of the most prominent and easy to spot meteor showers, the Geminids have plenty to offer the casual astronomer or someone looking for a cheap date. However don't think that professional astronomers, NASA, ESA, et all think this is some blasé affair. One of the most endearing aspects about the Geminids is that no one really knows what is going on. In general, meteor showers are caused by comets. What happens is that debris breaks off of the comets as they pass by Earth and sprint through the atmosphere where the friction from the air pressure causes them to burn up and cause what we see flying through the sky. The Geminids are different because they are not caused by a comet, but by what scientist believe is an asteroid, 3200 Pantheon. The real twist is that according to research done in 2009, as the 3200 Pantheon passed near the Sun it released the debris that dazzles human viewers in the form of meteors it only added 0.01% to the mass of the Geminid debris stream which is not nearly enough to sustain it over time.ⁱⁱ

KidCosmos.org

To view the Geminids, find the Gemini constellation, near Orion which is normally much easier to spot. This December should be an all right month for viewing because the moon is only about half full and should not be bright enough to hide the meteors. The 14^th of the month is normally the best night, but a healthy dose of meteors should be available to see every night until the 16^th. To find a star map go here http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Yoursky and input your latitude and longitude as well as the time you plan on being out to look. For those of us living in Armenia, Yerevan is located at 40º11'N and 44º30'E.

Do yourself a favor. Make a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, put a coat and a hat on, and step outside for an hour one night this week. Take your time, look at the sky, forget your problems, and space out (pun intended) for a while. It'll be fun.

i http://meteorshowersonline.com/geminids.html

ii http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/06dec_geminids/

The Legacy

This is the third of a three part series to commemorate the twenty-second anniversary of the Armenian earthquake of December 7^th, 1988.

Part I can be found here. Part II can be found here.

The Legacy

After the devastating earthquake that shocked Armenia twenty-two years today, there was much soul searching and many questions that needed to be answered. The most important question was, 'How do we prevent a tragedy like this from ever happening again?' Since it is impossible to stop the movement of the Earth's crust, in order to continue to live in a zone full of seismic activity certain steps must be taken. Taking a cue from Japanese construction, after the earthquake the Soviet government decided to rebuild with buildings that are able to withstand the energy release from these tremors underground.

The Soviet reconstruction succeeded in many aspects. Soviet architects concluded that the reason the destruction was so widespread was that the original buildings were not built to be earthquake resistant. Working with seismologists, all the residential and public buildings were built to withstand earthquakes measuring up to a magnitude of 7 on the Richter scale. This was done because at that time, Soviet seismologists believed that the seismic activity in Armenia could not get any higher than that. Unfortunately the glaring failure of the Soviet project is shown though international data collected in the aftermath of the earthquake. This data has led most scientists to believe that Armenia lies in an area at risk of earthquakes with a magnitude as high as 9.ⁱ

It is scary that Armenia has the capability of experiences earthquakes with such a high magnitude, but these powerful forces are extremely rare. The question many people ask is 'What would happen if another earthquake occurred with the same force as the one so many years ago?' The answer to this question is even scarier than Armenia's earthquake risk.

“If an earthquake strikes in Yerevan 90 percent of the housing will be ruined, and the death toll will exceed 300,000.” This is a quote from Mikayel Melkumyan, the chairman of the Armenian Association for Seismically Safe Construction.ⁱⁱ The reason for his cynicism is what he believes to be a population density far too high in Yerevan. There is a new proverb popping up in Armenian, 'There are more cranes than trees in Yereven.'ⁱⁱⁱ A walk down almost any street in the capital will bear signs of construction that is happening at a frenetic pace.

Construction in Yerevan. ArmeniaNow

The construction in Yerevan is a double edged sword. On one hand, it is increasing the density of buildings to what many people believe is unsuitable for such a seismic zone. On the other hand, the new buildings being constructed are of higher quality and more resistant if Yerevan does get attacked by an earthquake. The major concern is all of the buildings that were built in the 1950's and 70's because they will be the ones that will collapse and block of roads and access routes for emergency services.

As for the human element during this tragedy, studies have shown that casualties can be lessened up to thirty percent if people are aware of the danger and grow up in a culture that works to prevent these dangerous situations.^iv There has been some progress here with games and trainings organized for younger children at school so they understand what do to in event of an earthquake. Also the government has begun to look harder at construction firms and ensure the work is up to international standards. Along with better construction of new buildings, government officials are beginning to see the wisdom of improving existing buildings. It would take an estimated $3 billion USD to update all the residential buildings in Yerevan alone.^v But compared with the dollar cost of what it would take to rebuild the entire city and the emotional toll another earthquake would cause with people dying families being destroyed, is there any good reason not find the money?

i http://www.armenianow.com/news/26318/spitak_earthquake_architects

ii http://www.armenianow.com/news/9278/preparation_perilous_specialists_s

iii http://www.armenianow.com/news/9278/preparation_perilous_specialists_s

iv http://www.armenianow.com/news/9278/preparation_perilous_specialists_s

v http://www.armenianow.com/news/19860/majority_armenians_live_seismically_vulnerable_buildings

The People

This is the second of a three part series to commemorate the twenty-second anniversary of the Armenian earthquake of December 7^th, 1988.

Part I can be found here. Part III can be found here.

The People

In any natural disaster, there is almost invariably loss of life. The forces of the earth care little for families or loved ones, jobs or who you owe money to. Avalanches, earthquakes, mud slides, wild fires see humans and animals as nothing more than soft obstacles that get in the way. As unforgiving as nature can be, and the idea that bodies are to be expected after large natural disturbances, humans can not forget the dead. A disaster the magnitude of the 1988 earthquake affects everyone; rich people, poor people, men, women, children, grandparents, soldiers, teachers, and everyone in between.

The most common estimate of the casualties of the earthquake that happened in 1988 counts approximately twenty-five thousand people dead. Another fifteen thousand were injured by falling debris or in the general pandemonium that followed. However the most sobering statistic was that over a half a million people were left homeless.ⁱ What makes homelessness so important after a natural disaster, is that it is a persistent problem. Not only does a family lose everything they have worked for their entire lives, their homelessness becomes a defining characteristic. “He used to be a teacher, but now he struggles just to feed his family. She used to own a store, but it was destroyed.” The psychological toll disasters take on those affected can never properly be measured in numbers.

Of those who died in the earthquake, children bore a disproportionate toll. Almost two-thirds of those killed during this radical restructuring of the landscape were children. In one school of 302 children, 285 (94%) were killed. The schools that were built during this time were simply unable to cope with such traumatic forces. Almost four hundred children or youth institutions were destroyed or damaged. In Spitak and Gyumri alone, 105 schools and kindergartens were destroyed. This statistic is alarming on its own, but when added that there there were only 131 schools in the two communities, the full scope of the tragedy is known.ⁱⁱ

While the loss of life is regrettable, and injuries are obvious so they can be taken care of fairly immediately, the issue of people who lost their homes in this tragedy is still being felt in Armenia today. In the city of Gyumri, official statistics from the Armenian government put the number of families still displaced by the earthquake at almost four thousand. Of those families, many are still living in the “temporary housing” provided by the Soviet Union two decades ago. After the earthquake, contractors from all the Soviet Republics except for Azerbaijan, and the international community were brought in to rebuild, which was only supposed to take two years. With the collapse of the Soviet Union reconstruction slowed dramatically with only only two thousand new apartments built between 1994-2003.ⁱⁱⁱ One of the major issues with the new apartments that are currently being built is that the government is giving out vouchers worth about $10,000 USD, but the average apartment sells for $12,000 - $15,000 and many people do not have the savings available to cover the remainder.

Living conditions in a Gyumri
apartment. ArmeniaNow

While this construction is occurring, people are still living in housing that is can only be called sub-standard, and that is an understatement. Since Spitak was obliterated, the original reconstruction was focused there and the living arrangements are decent and livable. Now Gyumri is the biggest concern. There are eighty-eight apartment blocs that are considered unsafe. Of those eighty-eight, ten are said to be extremely dangerous and may collapse at any minute. Unfortunately, these apartment blocs are not uninhabited. It is a sad fact that twenty years later, people are still living and trying to raise a family in apartments that have not been rebuilt, or repaired in any way, and are forced every day to hope and pray another disaster does not strike and bury their lives once again.^iv

i http://warnercnr.colostate.edu/avprojects/98proj/world_volc/web_docs/armenia.html

ii http://www.aaets.org/article38.htm

iii http://www.armenianow.com/features/7961/waiting_earthquake_s_legacy_stil

iv http://www.armenianow.com/features/8926/earthquake_legacy_decaying_buildin

The Earthquake

This is the first of a three part series to commemorate the twenty-second anniversary of the Armenian earthquake of December 7^th, 1988.

Part II can be found here. Part III can be found here.

The Earthquake

On December 7^th, 1988 at 11:41 local time, a large earthquake devastated Shirak and Lori Marzes in northwestern Armenia. The city of Spitak was reduced to rubble, while the cities of Gyumri (then Leninikan) and Vanadzor (then Kirovakan) sustained serious damage as well. Seismologists for USGS measured the earthquake as having a magnitude of 6.8 on the Richter scale.ⁱ For a contemporary comparison, the recent earthquake that occurred in January of 2010 in Haiti had a magnitude of 7.0.ⁱⁱ Because of the way magnitudes are calculated using base-10 logarithmic scale, each increase of whole number depicts an increase of approximately 31 times the energy released.ⁱⁱⁱ The largest recored earthquake happened in 1960 in Chile and had a magnitude of 9.5.^iv

Armenia lies in an area where it is affected by the convergence of the Arabian and Eurasian Plates. The Arabian Plate encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the Persian Gulf, and extends west almost to the Mediterranean Sea. The Eurasian Plate is much larger. It meets the North American plate about halfway across the Atlantic Ocean and stretches all the way to Japan and runs north through Russia. The Arabian Plate is slowly moving north and is responsible for the creating of the Zagros Mountains in Iran.^v This northward migration of the plate caused the earthquake of December 7^th.

The reason that Spitak was hit the hardest by the earthquake is because the epicenter was located along a small fault line directly under the city.^vi Geologists have determined the focal point of the earthquake to be ten kilometers beneath the surface. The type of fault that broke the surface here is defined as a dip-slip fault by the United States Geological Service. In this instance, the fault is termed reverse because the rock above the fault moves up as opposed to down. A thrust fault is a reverse fault with a dip less than 45 degrees.^vii A small flash animation demonstrating the movement of a thrust fault by USGS can be found here. Four minutes after the original shock, the area was assaulted with an aftershock with a magnitude of 5.8. Five days later, on December 12^th, 1988, the Director of the Soviet Institute of the Physics of the Earth said at least 191 aftershocks were registered after the initial earthquake.^viii

The direct economic cost of the earthquake was placed at $14.2 billion (US) based on the exchange rates of the day. Much of this cost occurred in Spitak which was close to being completely destroyed. Gyumri incurred a large portion of this cost as well. More than half of the buildings in Gyumri were destroyed or damaged. Stepanavan, Vanadzor, and other small cities and villages in the northwestern part of the country also sustained damage.^ix Exact numbers according to USGS are, 314 buildings were destroyed, 641 needed demolishing, 1,264 needed strengthening and repairs. Of all the buildings, after the earthquake only 712 (less than twenty five percent) were inhabitable.^x

Damage in Spitak. Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University.

This area of the world is no stranger to powerful movements of earth. In 893 an earthquake occurred that cost an estimated twenty thousand lives. In 1667 another eighty thousand were killed. In more recent history, devastating earthquakes have been recorded in 1894, 1899, 1914, 1920, and 1926. The movement of the Arabian Plate has also affected Georgia and Turkey. Turkey was hit with a 7.3 magnitude earthquake that is responsible for 5,000 deaths and another in 1983 which was registered as having a magnitude of 6.9 and killed 1,300 people.^xi

i http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1988_12_07.php

ii http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010rja6.php

iii http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/richter.php

iv http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php

v http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zagros_Mountains

vi http://warnercnr.colostate.edu/avprojects/98proj/world_volc/web_docs/armenia.html

vii http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/?termID=59

viii http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1988_12_07_ev.php

ix http://warnercnr.colostate.edu/avprojects/98proj/world_volc/web_docs/armenia.html

x http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1988_12_07_ev.php

xi http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1988_12_07_ev.php

Initiative meeting in Yerevan

October 2nd the Environmental Awareness Initiative met in Yerevan. This was the first meeting with the A-18 and A-17 volunteers. Meetings were planned and future goals were discussed. The summer Environmental Leadership camps were considered a success. In November the student leaders will be meeting to discuss their community projects. Recently there was an event sponsored by GTZ for World Water Monitoring Day, this was attended by Peace Corps Volunteers involved with children groups.

Some upcoming events include

• October 24th is a trash pickup in Gyumri sponsered by the New Generation NGO
• There will be a bylaws meeting November 23rd

Other plans involve the update of the Green Compass, a book of environmental lesson plans, and volunteers are looking into developing Skype lesson plans.

The next meeting of EAI will be in November at the all volunteer conference.

~Vincent Cleveland

EAI cochair

Project Ideas

EAI Upcoming/ Ongoing Projects:

•October 2nd EAI meeting

•Green Camp in a Box
(For all volunteers who want one. It will include lessons and agenda examples, resources or materials needed.)

•Green Compass
(Reviewing, revising, and editing lessons to make it more useful for volunteers and their counterparts.)

•New Green Camp Workbook

•Bird Trainings

•Getting experts/academics to the field to do trainings or activities in clubs

•GTZ Water Monitoring Program

•Way To Go Club

What Is EAI

Welcome the the EAI Armenia blog. EAI is the Environmental Awareness Initiative, and this blog is intended to increase awareness of our actions in Armenia. In the past we have organized environmental camps for school aged youth. There are bird trainings and bird watching expeditions. Follow this blog for updates on our activities and events.

~Vincent
EAI CoChair