Lake Sevan Part II

Friday, February 11, 2011 | By Patrick Welz
Lake Sevan Part II
The Flora and Fauna of Lake Sevan

While many people focus Armenia's location at the crossroads of European, Turkish, Arab, and Russian cultures, natural scientists are far more interested in how Armenia's location has been influenced by neighboring ecosystems. And since Lake Sevan is one of the single largest and most influential natural bodies in Armenia, it is a great starting point to investigate this natural overlapping.

The first thing scientists realized about the Lake Sevan area is the different natural zones. One can find characteristics of deciduous forests, alpine meadows, semi-arid steppe, and now because of the Soviet plan for Lake Sevan, artificial evergreen forests.i These various ecosystems have led many species of animals and plants to develop and thrive in the Sevan basin. Approximately 1,600 or one half of all the plant species in Armenia can be found near the lake. The Red Data Book of Armenia published in 1988 (The Soviet version of endangered and threatened species lists) includes 386 species of plants, 48 of which can be found in the Sevan basin.ii Also, the Sevan basin includes six native species of plants that evolved there and are considered endemic.iii

In the lake itself, six species of fish have been identified. Two of these species have been listed in the Red Book. One of these species, the ishkhan can be found on the ragged edge of extinction. Unfortunately for the biodiversity of Lake Sevan, ishkhan trout is considered a delicacy in most Armenian house holds and commercial and personal fishing continues.


Armenian Gull
ArmeniaBirding.info
While many plants can be found surrounding the lake, and various types of native fish, birds are the highlight of Lake Sevan. Bird-watching in Armenia is slowly beginning to catch the eyes of international birders and is considered by many to be one of the last diamond in the rough birding locales that is accessible to enthusiasts of all levels. BirdLife International has designated five locations in Armenia as “Important Bird Areas,” one of which is Lake Sevan.iv Because Armenia lies in the migratory path of many European and Russian birds, 350 species of birds have been identified in Armenia, 210 of which can be found in the Sevan area.v Before the drainage of the lake, Sevan was considered to be the greatest inland breeding area for water birds between the Caspian and Black Seas, although now the breeding capacity is greatly diminished.vi











iv The Stone Garden Guide Armenia and Karabagh Second Edition
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Lake Sevan Part I

Thursday, February 3, 2011 | By Patrick Welz
Lake Sevan Part I

Lake Sevan From Space
Wikipedia
Located at an altitude of nearly two thousand meters above sea level, Lake Sevan is one of the largest alpine lakes in the world. As such, it has been considered extremely important throughout Armenian culture, economically and ecologically.

The Soviet Drainage of the Lake

Currently, close to one fifth of all livestock raised in Armenia can be found in the Sevan basin, ninety percent of all the fish caught in the country is caught in Sevan, along with eight percent of the crayfish. Other possible economic benefits caught the interest of Stalin and Soviet engineers which led to the current poor state that the lake is currently in. In 1910, an Armenian engineer by the name of Suqias Manesserian published a book, “The Evaporating Billions and the Stagnation of Russian Capital.” In it, he concluded that due to the amount of evaporation being more than twice as high as the average direct precipitation the level of the lake should be lowered. By reducing the surface area through a drainage system, the water that was being lost to evaporation could be used for power generation and irrigation. His original idea was to drop the water level by fifty meters, leaving a lake of only 240 km² out of the original size of 1,416 km². In the early 1930s, Manesserian's plan was implemented and when the drainage tunnel was completed in 1949, the water level started to drop at the rate of one meter per year. Before the drainage was stopped, the water level had dropped 19.88 meters, a reduction in volume of 44% (58.5 km³ to 32.9 km³), and a shrinking of the surface area by 180 km².i


Sevan Water Level
Lake Sevan: Experience and Lessons Learned Brief

When the water level dropped, engineers not letting a potential money maker go waste, planted many artificial forests. Even today along the Sevan to Vardenis road, one will see many groves of pine trees planted in regular lines bordering the lake. Acacia, willow, and sallow thorn were planted as well. The unfortunate side effect of this planting is that all of these new species are non-native which has disrupted the migratory patterns of birds and much of the wildlife surrounding the lake. One of the most drastic effects has been on the ishkhan, or Sevan trout.ii By affecting the spawning grounds of the ishkhan, human impact on Lake Sevan took a fish that was harvested commercially, with yearly catches of more than 5,000 metric tons up through the 1940s, to an endangered specie. In 1983, the last year ishkhan catches were recorded, the catch had dropped down to a mere 8 metric tons.iii




iii http://www.ilec.or.jp/eg/lbmi/pdf/21_Lake_Sevan_27February2006.pdf
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Metsamor

Saturday, January 29, 2011 | By Patrick Welz
Metsamaor Nuclear Power Plant

Built in the 1970's, the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant is a complex of two old Soviet VVER-440 Model V230 reactors.i Because of the 1988 earthquake (read more about the earthquake here) the plant was closed, but one of the reactors was reopened in 1993. This was done because the plant produces forty percent of the electricity used in Armenia. This coupled with the Azeri and Turkish blockades of Armenia created severe energy shortages that many Armenians call the “dark and cold” years. These years of energy shortages are directly related to the deforestion issue that Armenia is currently grappling with.

Even though the plant is the single largest producer of Armenia's electricity, there are several environmental and social issue that have spelled doom for the plant in it's current incarnation. The first is the location of the plant. Armenia located in a seismically active area which makes any sort of construction difficult. Under pressure from the United States and the European Union, Armenia has agreed to close to reactor. Even if the reactor is not closed down because of the agreement, the plant is planned to be retired in 2016. To aid Armenia in this process, the EU has pledged one hundred million euros to close the plant as soon as possible.ii Second, the EU has classified the VVER-440 reactors to be the “oldest and least reliable” reactors built by the Soviet Union.iii One of the biggest issues the EU has with Metsamor is the lack of safety measures that were built into it to prevent the escape of dangerous radioactive emissions in the event of a catastrophic accident.iv Even now the Turkish government is started to monitor the level of radiation in the state of Anatolia which borders Armenia. Cases of lung cancer in the area has increased dramatically recently and the Turkish government is obviously curious as to why this happened.v And while the Turkish government claims that this new program to monitor radiation levels is not related to Metsamor, the sad fact of the current geopolitical situation in the Caucuses is that everything said by governments in the area must be taken with a grain of salt. Finally, the human element of the situation can not be ignored. The Metsamor plant is located merely twenty-eight kilometers from the capital of Yerevan. Yerevan is home to one and a half million people, basically half the entire population of Armenia. The fears of the effects of a large earthquake would have on on Yerevan has been mentioned here, and many environmentalists and human rights activists believe that Metsamor is an equally important issue.

Since most people will agree that the Metsamor plant needs to be updated, the Armenian government approved the construction of a new nuclear plant in 2008. Construction of the plant may be started as earlier as this year and is scheduled to be commissioned in 2017. The cost is quite high, upwards of five to seven billion dollars, but the investment is seen by many as a wise one. The new plant could be capable of producing more than twice the electricity than the current Metsamor plant.vi The benefit to the Armenian people is obvious. By producing more electricity, prices will drop to approximately ten cents a kilowatt hour. Less obvious but just as important will be the benefit to Iran, Turkey, and Georgia. There is potential for a massive power surplus to be generated by the new plant, and the excess electricity will be sold to neighboring countries. Coupled with the idea that these three countries will be facing electricity shortages in the next few years, being an electricity broker will help keep the lights on and make Armenia a more important regional player. Unfortunately, the high price tag is going to be a difficult hurdle to surmount. If the plant costs five billion dollars, that would be almost half of the Armenian GDP for 2008 and more than double the national budget for 2009. Foreign investment is the only option, but luckily there has been some interest from Russian energy firms.vii

The nature of the Armenian economy makes the Metsamor plant a particularly divisive topic. As with many industries in Armenia; factories, mines, road construction, the choice is once again environmental and public health versus the need for paying jobs. Sergey Grigoryan and Aramayis Gasparyan are two of the men caught up in this struggle. On one hand they were exposed to radioactive dust that they inhaled during an accident nearly twenty-five years ago. The third man who was exposed died nine years after the accident when he was 34 years old. On the other hand Grigoryan and Gasparyan continue to work at the plant even after being considered partially disabled in 1992. They are aware that the plant is bad for their health, they are not ignorant. But in order to put food on the table for their families they continue to work at a place that may be slowly killing them. This mind-set is not only limited to plant workers. Residents of the town of Metsamor feel the same and unhappy with rumors that the plant may be closed. Since the plant is the largest employer of the town, they are worried about their financial futures.viii It has been said that “hunger is the best motivation.” It certainly seems reasonable that the threat of hunger continues to motivate people to work and live near the plant despite all health risks that the locals are quite aware of.

The future of nuclear power in Armenia is the future of Armenia. With no large natural gas, oil, or coal deposits nuclear power seems to be the only option for large scale power production that does not heavily rely on imports from foreign nations. The geography of Armenia is simply not suited to other “green” electric productions such as solar or wind power. While there are a few new windmills located in the northern part of the country, they will never be able to produce enough electricity to keep Armenia out of the dark. It seems like that if a new plant is not built, Metsamor will stay open past the 2016 retirement date and continue to deteriorate and poison the local residents and environment.




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The Geminids

Saturday, December 11, 2010 | By Patrick Welz
Geminid Meteor Shower

It's that time of year again. While we are preparing for Christmas and New Years, the Gemind Meteor Shower is about to happen. For those of us who aren't in the know, the Geminids are one of the premier stargazing events of the year. First appearing in the 1860s, this cosmic light show occurs in mid-December of every year, with the greatest intensity normally falling on the 14th. To patient observers willing to brave the winter chill (or lucky observers living in the Southern Hemisphere) meteor densities close to one hundred an hour will be a visual treat not soon forgotten.i

Being one of the most prominent and easy to spot meteor showers, the Geminids have plenty to offer the casual astronomer or someone looking for a cheap date. However don't think that professional astronomers, NASA, ESA, et all think this is some blasé affair. One of the most endearing aspects about the Geminids is that no one really knows what is going on. In general, meteor showers are caused by comets. What happens is that debris breaks off of the comets as they pass by Earth and sprint through the atmosphere where the friction from the air pressure causes them to burn up and cause what we see flying through the sky. The Geminids are different because they are not caused by a comet, but by what scientist believe is an asteroid, 3200 Pantheon. The real twist is that according to research done in 2009, as the 3200 Pantheon passed near the Sun it released the debris that dazzles human viewers in the form of meteors it only added 0.01% to the mass of the Geminid debris stream which is not nearly enough to sustain it over time.ii
KidCosmos.org

To view the Geminids, find the Gemini constellation, near Orion which is normally much easier to spot. This December should be an all right month for viewing because the moon is only about half full and should not be bright enough to hide the meteors. The 14th of the month is normally the best night, but a healthy dose of meteors should be available to see every night until the 16th. To find a star map go here http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Yoursky and input your latitude and longitude as well as the time you plan on being out to look. For those of us living in Armenia, Yerevan is located at 40º11'N and 44º30'E.

Do yourself a favor. Make a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, put a coat and a hat on, and step outside for an hour one night this week. Take your time, look at the sky, forget your problems, and space out (pun intended) for a while. It'll be fun.


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The Legacy

Tuesday, December 7, 2010 | By Patrick Welz
This is the third of a three part series to commemorate the twenty-second anniversary of the Armenian earthquake of December 7th, 1988.

The Legacy


After the devastating earthquake that shocked Armenia twenty-two years today, there was much soul searching and many questions that needed to be answered. The most important question was, 'How do we prevent a tragedy like this from ever happening again?' Since it is impossible to stop the movement of the Earth's crust, in order to continue to live in a zone full of seismic activity certain steps must be taken. Taking a cue from Japanese construction, after the earthquake the Soviet government decided to rebuild with buildings that are able to withstand the energy release from these tremors underground.

The Soviet reconstruction succeeded in many aspects. Soviet architects concluded that the reason the destruction was so widespread was that the original buildings were not built to be earthquake resistant. Working with seismologists, all the residential and public buildings were built to withstand earthquakes measuring up to a magnitude of 7 on the Richter scale. This was done because at that time, Soviet seismologists believed that the seismic activity in Armenia could not get any higher than that. Unfortunately the glaring failure of the Soviet project is shown though international data collected in the aftermath of the earthquake. This data has led most scientists to believe that Armenia lies in an area at risk of earthquakes with a magnitude as high as 9.i

It is scary that Armenia has the capability of experiences earthquakes with such a high magnitude, but these powerful forces are extremely rare. The question many people ask is 'What would happen if another earthquake occurred with the same force as the one so many years ago?' The answer to this question is even scarier than Armenia's earthquake risk.

“If an earthquake strikes in Yerevan 90 percent of the housing will be ruined, and the death toll will exceed 300,000.” This is a quote from Mikayel Melkumyan, the chairman of the Armenian Association for Seismically Safe Construction.ii The reason for his cynicism is what he believes to be a population density far too high in Yerevan. There is a new proverb popping up in Armenian, 'There are more cranes than trees in Yereven.'iii A walk down almost any street in the capital will bear signs of construction that is happening at a frenetic pace.

Construction in Yerevan. ArmeniaNow
The construction in Yerevan is a double edged sword. On one hand, it is increasing the density of buildings to what many people believe is unsuitable for such a seismic zone. On the other hand, the new buildings being constructed are of higher quality and more resistant if Yerevan does get attacked by an earthquake. The major concern is all of the buildings that were built in the 1950's and 70's because they will be the ones that will collapse and block of roads and access routes for emergency services.

As for the human element during this tragedy, studies have shown that casualties can be lessened up to thirty percent if people are aware of the danger and grow up in a culture that works to prevent these dangerous situations.iv There has been some progress here with games and trainings organized for younger children at school so they understand what do to in event of an earthquake. Also the government has begun to look harder at construction firms and ensure the work is up to international standards. Along with better construction of new buildings, government officials are beginning to see the wisdom of improving existing buildings. It would take an estimated $3 billion USD to update all the residential buildings in Yerevan alone.v But compared with the dollar cost of what it would take to rebuild the entire city and the emotional toll another earthquake would cause with people dying families being destroyed, is there any good reason not find the money?




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The People

Monday, December 6, 2010 | By Patrick Welz
This is the second of a three part series to commemorate the twenty-second anniversary of the Armenian earthquake of December 7th, 1988.



The People

In any natural disaster, there is almost invariably loss of life. The forces of the earth care little for families or loved ones, jobs or who you owe money to. Avalanches, earthquakes, mud slides, wild fires see humans and animals as nothing more than soft obstacles that get in the way. As unforgiving as nature can be, and the idea that bodies are to be expected after large natural disturbances, humans can not forget the dead. A disaster the magnitude of the 1988 earthquake affects everyone; rich people, poor people, men, women, children, grandparents, soldiers, teachers, and everyone in between.

The most common estimate of the casualties of the earthquake that happened in 1988 counts approximately twenty-five thousand people dead. Another fifteen thousand were injured by falling debris or in the general pandemonium that followed. However the most sobering statistic was that over a half a million people were left homeless.i What makes homelessness so important after a natural disaster, is that it is a persistent problem. Not only does a family lose everything they have worked for their entire lives, their homelessness becomes a defining characteristic. “He used to be a teacher, but now he struggles just to feed his family. She used to own a store, but it was destroyed.” The psychological toll disasters take on those affected can never properly be measured in numbers.

Of those who died in the earthquake, children bore a disproportionate toll. Almost two-thirds of those killed during this radical restructuring of the landscape were children. In one school of 302 children, 285 (94%) were killed. The schools that were built during this time were simply unable to cope with such traumatic forces. Almost four hundred children or youth institutions were destroyed or damaged. In Spitak and Gyumri alone, 105 schools and kindergartens were destroyed. This statistic is alarming on its own, but when added that there there were only 131 schools in the two communities, the full scope of the tragedy is known.ii

While the loss of life is regrettable, and injuries are obvious so they can be taken care of fairly immediately, the issue of people who lost their homes in this tragedy is still being felt in Armenia today. In the city of Gyumri, official statistics from the Armenian government put the number of families still displaced by the earthquake at almost four thousand. Of those families, many are still living in the “temporary housing” provided by the Soviet Union two decades ago. After the earthquake, contractors from all the Soviet Republics except for Azerbaijan, and the international community were brought in to rebuild, which was only supposed to take two years. With the collapse of the Soviet Union reconstruction slowed dramatically with only only two thousand new apartments built between 1994-2003.iii One of the major issues with the new apartments that are currently being built is that the government is giving out vouchers worth about $10,000 USD, but the average apartment sells for $12,000 - $15,000 and many people do not have the savings available to cover the remainder.

Living conditions in a Gyumri
apartment. ArmeniaNow
While this construction is occurring, people are still living in housing that is can only be called sub-standard, and that is an understatement. Since Spitak was obliterated, the original reconstruction was focused there and the living arrangements are decent and livable. Now Gyumri is the biggest concern. There are eighty-eight apartment blocs that are considered unsafe. Of those eighty-eight, ten are said to be extremely dangerous and may collapse at any minute. Unfortunately, these apartment blocs are not uninhabited. It is a sad fact that twenty years later, people are still living and trying to raise a family in apartments that have not been rebuilt, or repaired in any way, and are forced every day to hope and pray another disaster does not strike and bury their lives once again.iv











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The Earthquake

Sunday, December 5, 2010 | By Patrick Welz


This is the first of a three part series to commemorate the twenty-second anniversary of the Armenian earthquake of December 7th, 1988.

Part II can be found here. Part III can be found here.

The Earthquake


On December 7th, 1988 at 11:41 local time, a large earthquake devastated Shirak and Lori Marzes in northwestern Armenia. The city of Spitak was reduced to rubble, while the cities of Gyumri (then Leninikan) and Vanadzor (then Kirovakan) sustained serious damage as well. Seismologists for USGS measured the earthquake as having a magnitude of 6.8 on the Richter scale.i For a contemporary comparison, the recent earthquake that occurred in January of 2010 in Haiti had a magnitude of 7.0.ii Because of the way magnitudes are calculated using base-10 logarithmic scale, each increase of whole number depicts an increase of approximately 31 times the energy released.iii The largest recored earthquake happened in 1960 in Chile and had a magnitude of 9.5.iv


Armenia lies in an area where it is affected by the convergence of the Arabian and Eurasian Plates. The Arabian Plate encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the Persian Gulf, and extends west almost to the Mediterranean Sea. The Eurasian Plate is much larger. It meets the North American plate about halfway across the Atlantic Ocean and stretches all the way to Japan and runs north through Russia. The Arabian Plate is slowly moving north and is responsible for the creating of the Zagros Mountains in Iran.v This northward migration of the plate caused the earthquake of December 7th.


The reason that Spitak was hit the hardest by the earthquake is because the epicenter was located along a small fault line directly under the city.vi Geologists have determined the focal point of the earthquake to be ten kilometers beneath the surface. The type of fault that broke the surface here is defined as a dip-slip fault by the United States Geological Service. In this instance, the fault is termed reverse because the rock above the fault moves up as opposed to down. A thrust fault is a reverse fault with a dip less than 45 degrees.vii A small flash animation demonstrating the movement of a thrust fault by USGS can be found here. Four minutes after the original shock, the area was assaulted with an aftershock with a magnitude of 5.8. Five days later, on December 12th, 1988, the Director of the Soviet Institute of the Physics of the Earth said at least 191 aftershocks were registered after the initial earthquake.viii


The direct economic cost of the earthquake was placed at $14.2 billion (US) based on the exchange rates of the day. Much of this cost occurred in Spitak which was close to being completely destroyed. Gyumri incurred a large portion of this cost as well. More than half of the buildings in Gyumri were destroyed or damaged. Stepanavan, Vanadzor, and other small cities and villages in the northwestern part of the country also sustained damage.ix Exact numbers according to USGS are, 314 buildings were destroyed, 641 needed demolishing, 1,264 needed strengthening and repairs. Of all the buildings, after the earthquake only 712 (less than twenty five percent) were inhabitable.x

Damage in Spitak. Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University.

This area of the world is no stranger to powerful movements of earth. In 893 an earthquake occurred that cost an estimated twenty thousand lives. In 1667 another eighty thousand were killed. In more recent history, devastating earthquakes have been recorded in 1894, 1899, 1914, 1920, and 1926. The movement of the Arabian Plate has also affected Georgia and Turkey. Turkey was hit with a 7.3 magnitude earthquake that is responsible for 5,000 deaths and another in 1983 which was registered as having a magnitude of 6.9 and killed 1,300 people.xi

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